What is knowing, what is science, what is theory?

This is the third in a series of guest posts by Nate Monroe.

I’ve been under water for a few weeks, and that’s left me five weeks behind in my new blogging enterprise. So, in an effort to get back on track I’m here with an omnibus blog post that covers a bunch of the highlights from those weeks. But you should definitely check out Will’s coverage of Week 2 (Reality, Perception & Human Knowledge), Week 3 (What is Science?), Week 4 (Why Theorize?), and Week 5 (Want Ye Some Building Blocks for Theorizing?), as he gives a much more comprehensive take on what we’re trying to do with each class session.

Week 2

The focus of this week was ontology, but much of the class discussion focused on what it means to “know something” and, once we know what knowing is, how do we know we know? (I know, I know…) To start with, I argued that we should think of “knowing something” in probabilistic terms. That is, a person “knows” something—about the way some process works, some cause and effect relationship exists, some “fact” in the world is—when it’s no longer worth their time and effort getting new information to increase the probability that the “thing” (e.g. process, cause/effect, fact, etc.) works the way they think it works.

Once we had settled on this as a starting point, I argued that a key aspect of knowing, in a scientific sense, has to do with how we can collectively know something. There are two key points about the need for collective knowledge that I emphasized. First, we often have to act together to do things (whether it be building bridges or creating constitutions), and because of this it is very useful if we can agree about when we “know something” collectively. Second, by making knowledge creation and development a collective enterprise, we’ll be able to get around some limitations in biased perception at the individual level.

One consequence of this discussion, and perhaps my most heavily emphasized point, is that consumers of research should be very wary of people who say we should all “know” something simply because they know it through their expertise. As I explained to the class, this does not mean we cannot use “expertise” to build better theories, create better measures, conceive better designs, and so on. I simply warned them that they should be wary of academic snake-oil salesmen who will inevitably cite their own experience and expertise as the reason we should “know” that one theory or another, one implication or another, or one measure or another is in fact “true” or “false.”


Week 3

As Will already outlined in his post, Week 3 tackled the question “what is science?” One of the things the students picked up from the readings and seemed unsettled by is that there is no consensus on what science is either across disciplines or within political science. To their chagrin, I explained to them that I didn’t have a magical answer to this either (and if I did, they should be as suspicious of it as anything the snake-oil salesman above told them). Instead I gave them my own approximate definition along with some basic principles that I argue lead to better knowledge creation for a community of people working on the same basic set of problems. My definition was this: science is a process that allows us to, as efficiently as possible, create useful explanations that are able to serve as the foundation for even better explanations in the future. One of my students, recalling the lessons of the week prior, suggested that an amendment might be in order; a clause that reminds us of the need to “create a process that guards against the limitations of natural human biases and perception.” I accepted the friendly amendment and congratulated her on her sharp thinking.

The key thing I wanted to impart this week was a two prong motivation for thinking of science as a community endeavor. Prong one focuses on the point made in the friendly amendment: the basic ontological problem of individuals trying to “know things” on their own and being constantly fooled by their perceptual limits. Prong two is the more interesting one, I think: for me, the heart of science is the ability to constantly replace our explanations with better explanations.

In the rest of the class session, I tried to foreshadow the way that this would come into play as we work through the more tangible choices that come up throughout the research design process. Consider the need for explicit theory, for example. Articulating a carefully, rigorously, logically constructed theory isn’t particularly important for an individual doing “science” alone on a desert island, but it becomes crucial within a community of scholars all working to explain a particular phenomenon or related set of phenomena by building off of each other’s work. In that environment, explicitly stated theory becomes the anchor point from which better and better knowledge can emerge. Similarly, norms about sharing data and rewards for successful replications are the building blocks of successful science as I have defined it (for the students in the class). In short, thinking about science as a set of rules and norms designed to solve a collective action problem gives us a basis for choosing which version of “the scientific method” we adhere to (or cobble together).

Week 4

One theme that began in week 3 but carried us through week 4 (where the purpose was to explicitly discuss the goal of theorizing) was why deductive validity is so prized (by at least some cross-section of social scientists) in the development of theory. I presented the students with this “goal of theory”: to offer useful causal explanations for stylized facts (or phenomena or puzzles or relationships). So what “qualifies” as a possible explanation of a stylized fact? In other words, how do know that an explanation (i.e. a theory) actually “explains” the pattern we seek to explain? I argue that that deductive validity (either by formal or intersubjective means) is the only way for an explanation to quality; the only way it gets to “compete” to be the currently most useful theory.

For example, say we notice that constitutional systems with bicameral legislatures tend to be slower to change policy (radical, I know). At minimum, any explanation (read: theory) that purports to explain this pattern must be able to plausibly argue that this pattern is a deductively logical expectation of the theory. Say I proposed this explanation: “Dolphins cry to the sun and my foot hurts sometimes. Also, tacos.” That explanation doesn’t qualify, because I cannot derive from it the expectation that bicameral legislatures are slower to change policy. Yes, I realize that my explanation is the extreme end of silly. But consider that it shares a key property with many, many other “explanations” that sound relevant: none of them demonstrably imply the stylized fact they purport to explain. This argument may seem tautological, obvious, or both, but a quick spin through any social science journal will reveal plenty of violations of this basic premise, where the purported explanations for facts do not logically produce these facts as implications.

Next, I spent some time warning students about what theory is not. Diagrams are not theories (though many good theories have accompanying diagrams to help readers follow). Hypotheses are not theories (though many theories produce interesting and testable hypotheses). Literature reviews are not theories (though most theories have assumptions and concepts that are grounded in and motivated by previous literature). Experiments are not theories (rather experiments are analogies to the hypotheses that theories produce). Lists of variables are not theories (I have nothing to add to that). Of course I did my best to offer lots of caveats and nuance, but the reality is that in this class session I was just trying to lay the groundwork for good thought habits. I know they will need to be reminded of these things at least a few dozen more times before it occurs to them on their own; I’ll probably account for the first dozen reminders over the rest of this semester.

We finished that week’s discussion talking about the article “Fuck Nuance,” which I had never read until Will suggested it for the class. First of all, its abstract, which reads in full “Seriously, fuck it,” is by far the best abstract I’ve ever read. But it would be easy to read that and think that the article is devoid of useful content or is a spoof; that couldn’t be more wrong. Instead, its key lesson is perhaps the most sharply insightful critique of one of the most ubiquitous occurrences in political science: the demand for more plausibility, detail, breadth, depth… “nuance” in our theories. As I warned the students, it’ll happen during every workshop Q&A, in every set of written comments, on everything they will ever present.

My main point of emphasis in the discussion was to warn them to not be nuance-seekers. Theories are abstractions; we know for sure that they leave things out. Indeed, they would be useless if they didn’t. Only secondarily did I prepare them for the inevitable day when they’ll be asked to provide more nuance in some theory that they themselves had developed. Rest easy that I didn’t actually tell them to say “fuck nuance” in a Q&A, but I did give them the more cautious suggestion that they [1] show the nuance-seeker that they’re capable of thinking about what a theory that incorporates the requested nuance would look like and [2] gently remind the nuance-seeker that their theory, as is the case with all theories, is meant to be an abstraction from reality.

Week 5

In the fifth week we finally started talking about how to “do” this profession. Here, we focused on “the building blocks of theory,” which broadly consisted of talking about concepts and assumptions. I admit that I had a surprisingly hard time preparing for this discussion, for two reasons.

First, I had never thought as carefully as I should have about concept development, so I was thinking through some of this process for the first time. Luckily, Will is really, really good at it. So, across a couple of conversations with him, I came up with a three-step prescription for helping the students think about concept development:

  1. Develop a denotative definition
  2. Define the dimensional space of the concept
  3. Decide whether each dimension of the concept contains ordinal or continuous values.

On the first step, I argued for appealing to first principles, and staying away from connotative definitions. For the second and third steps, we talked through the basic mechanics of having conceptual values that are both collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive, and the properties of different categorization types. Along the way, I repeatedly hammered one point: concepts are not measures (I figuratively slapped the hands of almost every student for saying “variable” or some other related term). Concepts are the starting point for developing measures, and the beginning of theory of measurement, but they are not measures.

Second, in the run up to class, I had a very strange realization: I don’t know what an assumption is. Or, to put it more precisely, I don’t have a rule for what differentiates it from other parts of theory, like concepts and actors. And, in fact, I wasn’t/am not sure if there is any difference. Are all parts of theory assumptions or do assumptions in fact have their own character? I asked some of my colleagues, including Will, and no obvious answer emerged. Perhaps one of you readers can weigh in in the comments.

I confessed this to the students right off, but as to not send them spinning into theoretical space, I gave them a rough attempt at a definition. An assumption, I told them, is “any part of theory that “identifies which parameters—including actors and concepts—matter, and how they relate to one another in the theory.” This explanation is far from satisfying; at best, I’m willing to say I think it’s probably partially correct.

Another assumption-related stumbling block of slightly less troubling proportion was my attempt to confront “unstated assumptions.” That is: in every theory—including formal theories—some assumptions are left unstated. For example, two game theorists constructing proofs for the same model might not produce identical sets of “assumptions,” because they might justify the solution concepts differently or because they might have different beliefs about what constitutes common knowledge among their readers. Similarly, to generate purely verbal—but intentionally deductively valid—hypothetical derivations, two authors might choose a different set of stated “simplifying assumptions.” Is there some rule or principle that informs this choice? I didn’t have one. So, again, I gave them the best advice I could come up with: since ultimately, their job is to come up with theories that are useful to some set of people, and since intersubjective agreement is the heart of deductive validity, I told them they needed to always keep their audience in mind when making these choices. That is, I told them they need exactly as many stated assumptions as would be required to persuade their audience that their theoretical implications necessarily follow from their assumptions.

This doesn’t quite get me all the way caught up, as I’ve already taught weeks six and seven. But since Will hasn’t yet blogged about his experience with those lessons, I’ll leave those topics for my next omnibus post.

Happy sciencing.

— Nate

Posted in NM's Posts, Theory & Inference Course | Leave a comment

“Gracious” v “Sore” Election Losers, US Stylee

My friend, and former colleague at UC, Riverside, Shaun Bowler has a post over at Vox that discusses the important role of concession speeches by losing politicians that affirm the legitimacy of the process.  Adam Przeworski famously put the issue this way.  “Democracy makes winners and losers. Why would the losers choose to comply with the results? The key: democratic institutions help give political actors a

long time horizon. . . They allow them to think about the future rather than being concerned exclusively with present outcomes. . . . Political forces comply with present defeats because they believe that the institutional framework that organizes the democratic competition will permit them to advance their interests in the future (19).

I was unable to find a collection of those speeches by the politicians who lost US Presidential elections, so I cobbled one together, below.

For me this issue highlights the challenge of collapsing parties: Donald Trump is not a career, politician, and he trades on that as a major part of his appeal.  Bernie Sanders is, but has worked outside the two parties in the US.  That Sanders endorsed Clinton after the primary is consistent with his stake in the political system.  That Trump likely will not is consistent with his absence of that stake.  Partisans routinely boo and shout “No!” when their candidate concedes.  Should we expect a non-politician who has won the nomination of a major party to share a career politician’s interests in their political party and act in response to the “long time horizon” (i.e., “behave like a politician”)?  What if that candidate called his campaign a “movement,” and was opposed by large parts of the party whose nomination he had won?

Thinking about the incentives of such a candidate in the context of Przeworski’s thinking puts Mr Trump’s comments about “rigged elections” in a different light than people seem to be discussing it. And it suggests to me that the implosion of the Republican party, and erosion of the Democratic party, are not events to celebrate.

Richard Nixon

U.S. President Richard Nixon at a news conference in Washington, D.C., March 4, 1969. (AP Photo)

2012: Mitt Romney

I have just called President Obama to congratulate him on his victory. His supporters and his campaign also deserve congratulations. His supporters and his campaign also deserve congratulations. I wish all of them well, but particularly the president, the first lady and their daughters. This is a time of great challenges for America, and I pray that the president will be successful in guiding our nation.

2008: John McCain

My friends, we have come to the end of a long journey. The American people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly. A little while ago, I had the honor of calling Sen. Barack Obama  to congratulate him on being elected the next president of the country that we both love.  In a contest as long and difficult as this campaign has been, his success alone commands my respect for his ability and perseverance. But that he managed to do so by inspiring the hopes of so many millions of Americans, who had once wrongly believed that they had little at stake or little influence in the election of an American president, is something I deeply admire and commend him for achieving. This is an historic election, and I recognize the special significance it has for African-Americans and for the special pride that must be theirs tonight. Let there be no reason now for any American to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on Earth.

2004: John Kerry

Earlier today, I spoke to President Bush and I offered him and Laura our congratulations on their victory. We had a good conversation. And we talked about the danger of division in our country and the need, the desperate need, for unity for finding the common ground, coming together. Today I hope that we can begin the healing. In America it is vital that every vote count and that every vote be counted. But the outcome should be decided by voters, not a protracted legal process. I would not give up this fight if there was a chance that we would prevail. But it is now clear that even when all the provisional ballots are counted, which they will be, there won’t be enough outstanding votes for us to be able to win Ohio. And therefore we cannot win this election.

2000: Al Gore

Just moments ago, I spoke with George W. Bush and congratulated him on becoming the 43rd president of the United States — and I promised him that I wouldn’t call him back this time. I offered to meet with him as soon as possible so that we can start to heal the divisions of the campaign and the contest through which we just passed. Almost a century and a half ago, Senator Stephen Douglas told Abraham Lincoln, who had just defeated him for the presidency, “Partisan feeling must yield to patriotism. I’m with you, Mr. President, and God bless you.” Well, in that same spirit, I say to President-elect Bush that what remains of partisan rancor must now be put aside, and may God bless his stewardship of this country. Neither he nor I anticipated this long and difficult road. Certainly neither of us wanted it to happen. Yet it came, and now it has ended, resolved, as it must be resolved, through the honored institutions of our democracy. Over the library of one of our great law schools is inscribed the motto, “Not under man but under God and law.” That’s the ruling principle of American freedom, the source of our democratic liberties. I’ve tried to make it my guide throughout this contest as it has guided America’s deliberations of all the complex issues of the past five weeks. Now the U.S. Supreme Court has spoken. Let there be no doubt, while I strongly disagree with the court’s decision, I accept it. I accept the finality of this outcome which will be ratified next Monday in the Electoral College. And tonight, for the sake of our unity of the people and the strength of our democracy, I offer my concession. I also accept my responsibility, which I will discharge unconditionally, to honor the new president elect and do everything possible to help him bring Americans together in fulfillment of the great vision that our Declaration of Independence defines and that our Constitution affirms and defends.

1996: Robert Dole

Let me say that I talked to President Clinton. We had a good visit. I congratulated him. And I said. No, no, no. Wait a minute. Wait a minute. I’ve said repeated – I’ve said repeatedly – wait. I’ve said repeatedly – I have said repeatedly in this campaign that the president was my opponent not my enemy. And I wish him well and I pledge my support in whatever advances the cause of a better America, because that’s what the race was about in the first place, a better America as we go into the next century.

1992: George H.W. Bush

Well, here’s the way I see it. Here’s the way we see it and the country should see it — that the people have spoken and we respect the majesty of the democratic system. I just called Governor Clinton over in Little Rock and offered my congratulations. He did run a strong campaign. I wish him well in the White House. And I want the country to know that our entire Administration will work closely with his team to insure the smooth transition of power. There is important work to be done, and America must always come first. So we will get behind this new President and wish him–wish him well. Now I ask that we stand behind our new President and regardless of our differences, all Americans shamed–the–shared the same purpose: To make this, the world’s greatest nation, more safe and more secure and to guarantee every American a shot at the American dream…
I remain absolutely convinced that we are a rising nation. We have been in an extraordinarily difficult period, but do not be deterred, kept away from public service by the smoke and fire of a campaign year or the ugliness of politics. As for me, I plan to get–I’m going to serve and try to find ways to help people.

1988: Michael Dukakis

Just a few minutes ago, I called Vice President Bush and congratulated him on his victory. I want to, and I know I speak for all of you and for all the American people when I say that he will be our President, and we’ll work with him. This nation faces major challenges ahead, and we must work together.

1984: Walter Mondale, Jr.

A few minutes ago I called the President of the United States and congratulated him on his victory for re-election as President of the United States. He has won. We are all Americans.  He is our President, and we honor him tonight. Again tonight, the American people, in town halls, in homes, in fire houses, in libraries, chose the occupant of the most powerful office on earth. Their choice was made peacefully, with dignity and with majesty, and although I would have rather won, tonight we rejoice in our democracy, we rejoice in the freedom of a wonderful people, and we accept their verdict. I thank the people of America for hearing my case. I have traveled this nation, I believe, more than any living American, and wherever I’ve gone, the American people have heard me out. They’ve listened to me. They’ve treated me fairly. They’ve lifted my spirits and they’ve added to my strength, and if there is one thing I’m certain of, it is that this is a magnificent nation, with the finest people on earth.

1980: Jimmy Carter

I promised you, I promised you four years ago that I would never lie to you, so I can’t stand here tonight and say it doesn’t hurt. The people of the United States have made their choice, and of course I accept that decision, but I have to admit not with the same enthusiasm that I accepted the decision four years ago. I might say, I have a deep appreciation of the system, however, that lets people make a free choice about who will lead them for the next four years. About an hour ago, I called Governor Reagan in California, and I told him that I congratulated him for a fine victory. I look forward to working closely with him during the next few weeks. We’ll have a very fine transition period, I told him I wanted the best one in history, and I then sent him this telegram, and I’ll read it to you.

“It’s now apparent that the American people have chosen you as the next president. I congratulate you, and pledge to you our fullest support and cooperation in bringing about an orderly transition of government in the weeks ahead. My best wishes are with you and your family as you undertake the responsibilities that lie before you.”

And I signed it, Jimmy Carter.

1976: Gerald Ford (read by his wife, Bette Ford)

The President asked me to tell you that he telephoned President-elect Carter a short time ago and congratulated him on his victory.

1972: George McGovern

We’re here among friends in South ‘Dakota, where this campaign began almost 22 months ago. We now bring it to an end tonight and have just sent the following telegram to President Nixon:
Congratulations on your victory. I hope that in the next four years you will lead us to a time of peace abroad and justice at home. You have my full support in such efforts. With best wishes to you and your gracious wife, Pat. Sincerely, George McGovern.
The first Presidential concession that I remember hearing was that of Adlai Stevenson in 1952. He recalled the old Lincoln story of the boy who had stubbed his toe in the dark and when the lad was asked how it felt he replied, “Well, it hurts too much to laugh, but I’m too old to cry.” We will shed no tears because all of this effort I am positive will bear fruit for years to come… The Presidency belongs to someone else, but the glory of those devoted working friends and their dedication to the noble ideals of this country sustains us now and it will sustain our country… Now, the question is to what standards does the loyal opposition now rally? We do not rally to the support of policies that we deplore… But we do love this country and we will continue to beckon it to a higher standard. So I ask all of you tonight to stand with your convictions. I ask you not to despair of the political, process of this country, because that process has yielded too much valuable improvement in these past two years. The Democratic party will be a better party because of the reforms that we have carried out. The nation will be better because we never once gave up the long battle to renew its oldest ideals and to redirect its current energies along more humane and hopeful paths. So let us play the proper role of the loyal opposition…

1968: Hubert Humphrey

May I take a moment just to thank you, first of all, for your patience tonight. You have waited a long time, and I have waited an equally long time, and I wanted to take just a moment to come here to express my thanks to all of my many friends, particularly here at home and many that have come from other parts of the Nation for your wonderful support, and to tell you that I feel sufficiently at ease so that I want to get a good night’s rest. Some members of my family have already seen fit to retire in confidence and others have decided to stay up, but we have, as you know, several of the very important States nip and tuck, where the decision, I am sure, will not be known until some time at least late tomorrow, and if you want to stay up and wait for all that, I am all for you. But you have been watching the television and you have been listening to the reports, and I believe that it is fair to say that we have done much better than most observers had thought we would, about as good as I thought we would. Now, there are critical States yet to be heard from. They are not finalized as yet, States such as Ohio, Illinois, and the States such as California, the State of Washington, and, as you know, this is at best, as we put it, a donneybrook. Anything can happen. I understand from what I have been hearing from my friends on the television that it will be some time before we hear from California, and I thought since that was the case, since I just left California last night, that I maybe would retire and let both Hubert Humphrey and California have a night’s rest.

1964: Barry Goldwater

I’ve waited ’til now to make any statement about this elec­tion because I wanted to find out more of the details of the vote—not just the total but the spread of it, what it might portend at this very early date. I know many of you expect­ed me to make some statement last night but I held that off. I sent the President the fol­lowing wire, which I think will be available for you if you don’t have it now:
“To President Lyndon John­son in Johnson City, Tex.
“Congratulations on your victory. I will help you in any way that I can toward achiev­ing a growing and better America and a secure and dig­nified peace. The role of the Republican party will remain in that temper but it also re­mains the party of opposition when opposition is called for. There is much to be done with Vietnam, Cuba, the problem of law and order in this coun­try, and a productive econ­omy. Communism remains our No. 1 obstacle to peace and I know that all Americans will join with you in honest solutions to these problems.”
I have no bitterness, no ran­cor at all. I say to the Presi­dent as a fellow politician that he did a wonderful job. He put together a vote total that’s larger than has ever been gained in this country. However, it’s interesting to me and very surprising to me that the latest figures that I can get do not reach the totals of the 1960 election. I am dis­appointed in this because I thought that the American people would have turned out in greater numbers than they seem to have done… As I said in my wire, any­thing that I can do—and I’m sure that I speak for all Americans—anything that we can do to help the President get along with the solutions to these problems, we’re ready, willing and able to do.

1960: Richard Nixon

As I look at the board here, while there are still some results still to come in, if the present trend continues, Mr. Kennedy, Senator Kennedy, will be the next president of the United States. I want, I want Senator Kennedy to know, and I want all of you to know, that certainly if this trend does continue, and he does become our next president, that he will have my wholehearted support and yours too.

1952: Adlai Stevenson

My fellow citizens have made their choice and selected General Eisenhower and the Republican party as the instrument of their will for the next four years. The people have rendered their verdict, and I gladly accept it… It hurts too much to laugh, but I’m too old to cry. I urge you all to give General Eisenhower the support he will need to carry out the great tasks that lie before him. I pledge him mine. We vote as many, but we pray as one.


Update: Corrected some typos after receiving a Twitter DM noting them [23:52 (GMT -7) 16 Oct 2016].

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Meet Rape Culture: Progress and the Long Road Ahead

That Donald Trump is the perfect spokesperson to spread awareness that rape culture has been a part of the human experience since recorded history is not terribly surprising.  Indeed, the only positive thing I can take from his successful run for the US Republican party’s 2016 Presidential candidacy is that his candor puts in sharp relief where we are with respect to Enlightenment ideals, and how much needs to be done.[1]


Prompted by the ground work of Annie E Clark and Andrea L. Pino the White House launched the “It’s on Us” campaign in 2014, and prompted by Amanda Nguyen‘s advocacy the Survivors’ Bill of Rights Act of 2016 just this week became the law of the land.  We are, to be sure, a long way from dismantling rape culture, but the good news is that we now have under our belt several decades of advocacy to produce awareness of, and begin dismantling, rape culture.

How might we understand Trump’s remarks, which echo OJ Simpson’s alleged remarks in a bar about his then wife, Nicole:

“Ms. Brown also recalled another incident in 1989, when she, Nicole Simpson and Mr. Simpson were in a crowded bar where they were all drinking heavily.
“We were all drinking and goofing around and being loud and dancing and having a great time,” she said. “And then at one point O. J. grabbed Nicole’s crotch and said: ‘This is where babies come from. And this belongs to me.’
“And Nicole just sort of wrote it off like it was nothing — like, you know, like she was used to that kind of treatment. I thought it was really humiliating, if you ask me.”

At the level of text, this is the braggadocio stuff he says all the time: “I’m gonna build a wall”  “the best,” and so on.  But Wilson & Daly help us explain why rape culture has been part and parcel of the human experience.  It is universal across cultures and time.  If we want to dismantle it, we will do well do understand why it exists.  Further, it helps us avoid the mistake of imagining that rape culture has to be “normalized,” which is to say, that it is something other than a long run equilibrium status quo that has been normal for all of human experience.

Let’s begin with a stylized fact that the remarks of famous, wealthy men like OJ Simpson and Donald Trump are examples of.

Fantastically wealthy and powerful men neither forsake the acquisition of women nor use them to augment their wealth; they collect them. Neither can the agendas of harem holders be understood as the pursuit of mere sexual diversity: Monopolization is invariably a principal objective. Guarded harems constitute the hypertrophied manifestations of male ambitions released from the usual constraints of limited personal power, the fantastic products of a male psyche that evolved in social milieus in which extreme polygyny was impossible, but any increment in the numbers and/or the degree of monopolization of one’s mating partners would gain a selective advantage (Wilson & Daly, 301).

Of course, it is not just wealthy men: that would not be a cultural practice that affects all humans.

Only the richest and most powerful men could institute such elaborate arrangements to retain exclusive sexual access to many reproductively valuable women. However, millions of men have guarded and constrained “their” women by practices that seem to depart from those of despots only in degree. Veiling, chaperoning, purdah, and the literal incarceration of women are common social institutions of patrilineal societies, and it is only women of reproductive age who are confined or chaperoned. Prepubertal children and postmenopausal women enjoy considerable freedom, These practices are status graded (Dickemann, 1981): The higher the social status the more claustrated the women. Chinese foot binding was another such status-graded practice, which simultaneously made an ostentation of the male owner’s capacity to dispense with the woman’s labor and rendered her incapable of flight. There is considerable cross-cultural variation in the severity and institutionalization of such practices, but the repeated convergent invention of claustration practices around the world and the confining and controlling behavior of men even where it is frowned upon (Daly, Wilson, & Weghorst, 1982) reflect the workings of a sexually proprietary male psychology (p 301).

The 2015 #IAmNotADistraction hashtag of middle and high school girls, and their supporters, is one example of popular efforts to chip away at the ubiquity of rape culture.  It amazes me that the pair of Twitterpated scenes in Disney’s Bambi is not widely recognized for its role reproducing “rape culture.”



It is the Jezebel myth plan and simple.  I know plenty of parents who worry about their kids watching Bambi’s mother get killed, but where’s the concern over Twitterpated?  The shooting death of mom is the big concern?!?

The Twitterpated scene, like Delilah’s betrayal of Samson, are cultural tropes that help boys “learn” that women are dangerous: they have “wiles” and can trick you into acting against your best interest.  What do we need to do when facing something scary and threatening?  Control it, of course.  And middle / high school dress codes are a cultural “solution” to this “problem,” produced for males, by males, and of course, supported by high status women.

Let’s return to Wilson & Daly.

What about mate guarding plain and simple? Are men inclined to dog their fertile mates like songbirds during egg laying? In patrilocal societies, where wives are surrounded by their husbands’ relatives, a man may be content to leave his wife under the scrutiny of his mother or other kin. But in many societies – including the foraging (hunting and gathering) peoples who provide the best contemporary models of the ecological and socio-political contexts within which the human psyche evolved – people were mobile and group compositions variable (p 302).

Here is the take away: Lots of possible equilibria exist for solving the “problem” of male insecurity induced by the dramatically different roles played by humans with a womb and those with testicles in our species reproduction.  None of the solutions have confronted the Enlightenment ideals of human equality.

Let us now turn specifically to rape.  While Steven Pinker is hardly an excellent source (in my view, he has not yet appreciated the full implications of his commitment to Enlightenment ideals when it comes to gender), he offers a useful pithy account of the history of rape in human culture.

While rape is a human universal, so are proscriptions against rape.  Yet one has to look long and hard through history and across cultures to find an acknowledgment of the harm of rape from the viewpoint of the victim…  Rape was seen as an offense not against a woman, but against a man–the woman’s father, husband, or in the case of a slave, her owner.  Moral and legal systems all over the world codified rape in similar ways  (pp 394-5).


When did this all begin to change?  The rise of Max Weber’s state (which monopolizes the legitimate exercise of coercion) shifted the crime of rape from one against a man to one against the state.  Progress?  Sort of?

When medieval European governments began to nationalize criminal justice, rape shifted from from a tort against the husband or father to a crime against the state, which ostensibly represented the interests of women and society, but in fact titled the scales well toward the side of the accused (p 395).

Why?  Because men, who created these legal systems, have an incentive to recognize one another’s “property rights” over women.  Why?  Because it limits the internecine conflict that would otherwise occur.  That is, the Weberian state produces an equilibrium that reduces homicide among males competing for control over women.

Though the more blatant tropes of the women-as-property metaphor were dismantled in the Middle Ages, the model has persisted in laws, customs, and emotions into the recent present (p 397).

First, custom, as practiced in the West and, increasingly, diffusing beyond.

Women, not men, wear engagement rings to signal they are “taken,” and many are still “given away” at their weddings by their fathers to their husbands, whereupon they change their surname accordingly (p 397).

Now law.

Well into the 1970s marital rape was not a crime in any state (p 397).

Yup.  That began to change in the 1970s.  Not the 1870s.  Not the 1770s.  The 1970s.  Until the changes that began in the 1970s

legal system[s] underweighted the interests of women in [non-marital] rapes.  Legal scholars who have studied jury proceedings have discovered that jurors must be disabused of the folk theory that women can be negligently liable for their own rapes (pp. 397-8).

Finally, emotion.

In the realm of emotions husbands and boyfriends often find themselves cruelly unsympathetic to their partners after they have been raped… It’s not uncommon for a marriage to unravel after a rape (p 398).

Wilson & Daly (p 305) are more blunt.

Reactions to rape provide a particularly revealing window on the psychology of male sexual proprietariness (Thornhill & Thornhill, 1989). Men often reject raped women as “damaged goods,” sometimes accusing the victims of having provoked or enjoyed the rape (e.g., Brownmiller, 1975; Burgess & Holmstrom, 1974; Karkaria, 1972; McCahill, Meyer, & Fischman, 1979; Miller, Williams, & Bernstein, 1982; Weis & Borges, 1973). Even where there is no issue of the illicit copulation having been other than coerced, men still seem to perceive the woman as diminished in value: “She was all mine and now she’s been damaged,” says one participant in a therapy group for American men whose partners have been raped; “Something has been taken from me. I feel cheated. She was all mine before and now she’s not,” says another (Rodkin, Hunt, & Cowan, 1982).

Here I want to pause for parents of young males.  Have you a plan for helping your son(s) negotiate the fuktup emotional shite that is male jealousy with respect to female infidelity?  Perhaps “that is wrong” might work.  But I am guessing that many of you do not endorse a “post the 10 Commandments” in our schools as a solution to problems.  Cultures reproduce themselves because they are equilibria over which we as individuals exercise no choice.  They are collectively (re)produced.  And rape culture culture has millenia behind it, and is around us anywhere you care to look for it.

To reduce the ubiquity of rape culture to the poor behavior and attitudes of men like Donald Trump is to misdiagnose the problem.  To be sure, we must call him out.  But the question is: do we demonize him, or do we hold his statements up as a symptom of a larger cultural problem?  Is this a moment to help more people see how deeply embedded are these views in our cultural and legal systems?

Let Pinker summarize for us.

The history of rape, then, is one in which the interests of women had been zeroed out in the implicit negotiations that shaped customs, moral codes, and laws.  And our current sensibilities, in which we recognize rape as a heinous crime against the woman, represents a reweighting of those interests, mandated by a humanist mindset that grounds morality in the suffering and flourishing of sentient individuals rather than in power, tradition or religion (p 398).

One of the intriguing things to me about Trump’s “bragging” to Billy Bush is the fact that he kept mentioning that the object of his unwanted sexual attention was married.  He repeats that point over and over again.  Why?  Well, I don’t know as I am not Trump.  But my first conjecture is because it establishes his dominance: he doesn’t respect the “property rights” of other males.  Indeed, he’ll use his wealth to lure “other men’s women” into an interaction, and then take what he wants from her.


Outro: Some Porn Genres

The foundation of rape culture is the idea that men agree to respect one another’s claims to women’s bodies.  If that implicit bargain is the equilibrium so many of us believe it is, then we should be able to find evidence for it anywhere we care to look for it.  We should see groups of young males declaring their “fitness” by declaring their intent to “have their way” the “other men’s daughters,” and every fall we do.  If you have not watched it, The Hunting Ground documentary is worth your time.

Here is the Wikipedia entry for Captain Aardvark, a character in Joseph Heller’s Catch-22.


Is there demand out there for the “tricking dumb girls” into gang rape?  The google search below demonstrates that the Trumpish attitude Joseph Heller called out in 1961 is alive and well today.  And if parents imagine that their adolescent children are unlikely to learn of the genre, whose narrative has been with us forever, I beg to differ.


That search produces less than 1 million pages.  What happens when we get more graphic and search for rape fantasies?  We get close to 4.5 million pages.

rapefantasyFor those who are unaware, credit cards disappeared as a necessary condition to view such material several years ago.  The only thing stopping someone from viewing (and sharing) these sorts of videos is revulsion.  Many humans find such material revolting.  Many of us are curious and wonder what the hell that could be all about.  Most among us are titillated at violating taboos, secretly, when there is limited risk of being seen or caught.  And too many among us find these narratives inherently appealing.

Let me exit by asking you to see the glass as half full.  Judged by the standard of equality our species is a fucking mess.  But judged against our past we are making remarkable, jaw dropping, shocking progress.  The information revolutions induced by the printing press, telegraph, wireless radio, telephones, satellites, cable networks, and the Internet have played a foundational role in making slow, uneven, but persistent progress toward Enlightenment ideals possible.  We have a long way to go, and lots of work to do.  But if we are diligent, remind ourselves not to embrace the simplistic Manichaean narratives that demonize “the bad apples” and ignore the systemic problems, we can continue to change the status quo.


Correction: In my initial posting this sentence was incomplete: “We should see groups of young males declaring their “fitness” by…”

[1] The most alarming part of Trump’s success, for me, is the potential collapse of one of the two major parties.  Given electoral rules the US functions most effectively as a two party system, and the Republican party is not functional at present.  That does not bode well for the prospects of union as the US marches toward the demographic transition that no democracy I know of has faced, much less survived: the ethnic majority losing its electoral majority status.


Wilson, Margo & Martin Daly. 1992. The Man Who Mistook His Wife for a Chattel. In, J.H. Barkow, L. Cosmides, J. Tooby, Eds. The Adapted Mind. Evolutionary psychology and the generation of culture. 1992. Oxford University Press.

Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Want Ye Some Building Blocks for Theorizing?

The first four weeks of my Scientific Inquiry–Theory & Inference course covers being successful in graduate school, human knowledge (ontology/epistemology, and what is science?), and week one of the theory section explores the purpose of theory.  Week five provides two building blocks for theory: Concepts / Conceptualization, and Assumptions & Logical Implications.  We establish during week four that the course limits its attention to theory developed to explain why stylized facts occur, which is to say provide accounts of the processes that produce stylized facts.


Framing Discussion; A Historical Digression on Education in the US; and Audience, Audience, Audience

To kickoff seminar I told them that I wanted them to have a 45 minute discussion among themselves (I just listen and take notes) focusing some attention on the ontological / epistemological assumptions they believed the various authors were (implicitly) adopting.  Then I offered what I thought would be a quick digression.

I assign a fair amount of reading from Cohen & Nagel (1934) in the course, and if you have never read it, their presentation is pretty interesting.  And it occurred to me prior to class that I should not assume that many of the students have much context in which to read the work, which is definitely a produce of its time because: Audience, Audience, Audience.

So I explained to them that the book was an undergraduate textbook and that they should bear in mind that Cohen & Nagel could assume that their readers’ high school education drew strongly on the Great Books tradition of the Western canon, especially as taught in New England’s prep schools.  Well, you might think that I would have reflected on the probability that “the Great Books tradition of the Western canon, especially as taught in New England’s prep schools” is pretty foreign to them, and that a non-trivial portion of them may not even know the movie The Dead Poet’s Society (which is, of course, a caricature as well as a morality tale).  But I didn’t.

And a student interjected that she found the authors’ assumption that the reader was familiar with all the stories from antiquity very off putting, and found the book irritating. And I thought: “Teaching Moment.”  And noted that they were in the PhD program to transition from knowledge consumers to producers and teachers and put them in the shoes of Cohen & Nagel by pointing out that they would soon have their own classrooms, and just as the first principle of real estate is Location, Location, Location, the first principle of public presentation of one’s ideas is Audience, Audience, Audience.  And while the “the Great Books tradition of the Western canon” was exclusionary, ethnocentric, etc., it made writing textbooks much easier, and they could really see that in action in Cohen & Nagel.  I encouraged them to reflect, for a moment, upon what they could assume their students would know (pointing out that six years ago, the youngest among them was 12, and probably not terribly engaged in public life beyond popular culture).

Well, hands shot up, and I realized I had shot myself in the foot vis-a-vis discussion of the assigned reading.  D’oh!  But, a teaching moment is a teaching moment, and that there are lots of goals to pursue in this course, and nowhere near enough time to pursue them all (much less do so well).  So I rolled with the moment.




When I took back the reins of discussion after a brief break I began by observing that this week we stood zero chance of covering all of the issues addressed in the reading, much less exploring those that arose during the course of our discussion.  That is a chronic feature of all seminars, but felt especially true that night, given the teaching moment digression and its impact on discussion.

I have them read the first 10 pages of Blalock’s 1969 undergraduate text Theory Construction, and Shively’s undergrad text discussion of the “Importance of Dimensional Thinking.”  That sets them up to consume Barton’s 1955 chapter “The Concept of Property-Space in Social Research.”

Cohen & Nagel (1934) discuss “Terms: Their Intension and Extension,” “The Significance of Classification,” and “Rules for Definitions” (pp. 30-33, 223-33, 238-44), and Bailey discusses classification in his Sage monograph, Typologies and Taxonomies, (pp. 1-6, 11-16).

I have unorthodox views on the state of conceptualization in political science.  I think we stink.  No, that’s too kind.  I believe our work in this area is so poor that students are better off not engaging it.  I do not have the energy to defend that claim here, nor do I during seminar.  So I let them know my view, explain that were they to take the course in most any other PhD program they would either (a) not discuss conceptualization as a distinct building block for theorizing (my guess is this is the modal outcome) or (b) read work that I find detrimental to the field.

To offer some guideposts I identified Aristotle and Weber as arguably the most influential protagonists in our tragedy, and then noted the central role that Weber’s definition of the state plays in my approach to thinking about politics (so they don’t file away “Weber.  Moore hates his stuff.” or something similar, as grad students are wont to do).  I illustrated briefly with a reference to Ideal Type definitions, which rely on checklists, and suffer from both an absence of dimensionality (aka property space) and the problem of negative definition (everything that is not a member of the ideal type is lumped together as an undifferentiated group, unworthy of positive denotation).  Next week I will use Dahl’s two dimensional definition of Polyarchy as a contrast to Ideal Type definitions of Democracy.

Virtually all of the readings identify dimensionality as a central goal of denotative definition.  And Cohen & Nagel discuss the weakness of negative definition.

I then reminded them that we have argued that the course limits its attention to theory as explanations of stylized facts (remember, we still haven’t defined causation–it’s coming soon!).  So my claim is that while Ideal Type definitions have been, and will continue to be, useful for the production of human knowledge, we should explicitly embrace the norms advocated by Cohen & Nagel, Blalock,  and treat concepts that lack dimensionality and/or contain negative definitions[1] as inadequate for the limited purpose of producing theories to explain stylized facts.

I then reminded them that these are unorthodox claims, and were they being trained elsewhere, they would be unlikely to be asked to entertain such views.  :-)

Regrettably, I failed to share with them my claim that any Ideal Type definition can be converted to a useful social science concept (i.e., one with dimensionality) by pursuing these rules (poor time management!).

  1. Provide a denotative definition of your concept.
  2. Name it after the dimension (space) over which cases can be assigned, being attentive to both mutual exclusivity and collective exhaustivity.
  3. Identify whether (each) dimension is defined over ordinal or continuous space, specify the minimum and maximum values, and whether the space between values are ordinal, integer, interval, etc.

If we adopt this checklist as a best practice for concept formation we can understand Ideal Type concepts as conflating dimensions with a dimension’s maximum value.  If we reconceptualize Ideal Type concepts as a maximum value we force ourselves to name the dimension over which the value is a maximum.  Bam!  The negative definition problem disappears as well: we are also forced to provide denotation with respect to the full dimension (property space) and each of its values.  Two birds felled with one tripartite best practice.  Though none of the authors assigned for this section offer the checklist or discuss this issue, it is consistent with the set of them.

Though I failed to offer them this Conceptual Best Practice Checklist, I did remember to explain that dimensionality is valuable because it ensures that we have concepts that can vary.  And in so doing I part company with Clarke & Primo‘s discussion of Models as Maps or, better, placed restrictions beyond “useful for its intended purpose” on the models I want to include in the scientific knowledge community.[2]

If you are thinking “Wait a second.  You are privileging probabilistic theory over deterministic theory (e.g., necessary / sufficient types of explanations),” go to the head of the class!  Yes, I am doing that.  But, I remind you that the discussion of causation is coming up.  The Gordian Knot problem strikes again![3]

I also pointed out to the kids who participated in the Math Camp that we discussed the issues in points 1 and 2 during our study of probability, and reminded them of the distinction between classical probability theory (conceptual) and empirical probability theory.  I then argued that our discipline suffers from a failure to distinguish the two and mistakenly consider these issues more or less exclusively from an operational perspective.[4]   Invoking Jesse Pinkman, “That shit’s conceptual too, yo.”[5]

That set us up for my discussion of typology.  I use a dichotomous distinction between typology and concept.  For me, a typology is any term denoted or connoted by a scholar that has no clearly defined dimensionality (property space).  Though I have not given it adequate thought, I suspect all connotative definitions fall into the typology group of my dichotomy.  Ideal Type definitions certainly do.  And another commonly proposed “concept” in our field does as well: nominal classification schemes.

Bailey would refer to the nominal classification schemes common in political science as unidimensional taxonomies.  I noted that my dichotomous distinction is quite different from Bailey, for whom the most common form of taxonomy is a two dimensional ordered classification that we frequently refer to as a 2×2 classification.  Despite the fact that Bailey’s use of terminology does not map well onto practice in political science or my own dichotomous distinction, I embrace the risk of confusion to impress upon them how much effort other social science fields have invested in conceptualization.  I asked them whether the selection from Bailey had left them with that impression, and received lots of head nods and a few “You can say that again” facial expressions in response.

I then observed that one could retort that any nominal classification scheme could be readily converted to a series of binary “concepts.”  In doing so one would produce a series of Ideal Type “concepts.  As noted above, from there one could adopt the

I used Barbara Geddes typology of authoritarian regimes as my punching bag for illustrating nominal classification schemes.  I choose it because I envy Geddes’ her intellect, and get to tell the class “If I could switch brains with Geddes, I would do it in a moment.  That woman is wicked smart and a really great political scientist.”  That is, I am a huge fan of much of Geddes’ work, and I love having conversations with her.  Just as I point out the enormous value of some of Weber’s work before pillorying his penchant for Ideal Type definitions, I select Geddes’ regime typology because of the extent to which I can laud.[6]

To get that rolling I asked whether anyone was familiar with the classification scheme, and then asked one of those who is to briefly describe the types so that everyone had a flavor for it.  I then asked everyone to identify the number of dimensions (the property space) over which the types could be ordered.  When nobody could come up with a conjecture, I asked whether anyone could make offer speculation on a single dimension over which they might be ordered.  Again, crickets (and the handful familiar with the typology did make an effort).

I then pointed out that just because neither I nor they could identify one or more dimensions over which the typology might be ordered did not mean that nobody could.  Nor did it suggest that Geddes’ authoritarian regime typology was unhelpful for generating knowledge.  Though I doubt any of them have (yet) internalized this, that position is not only dramatically at odds with Clarke & Primo’s position (to say nothing of the huge number of political scientists and others who use the scheme in their work), it is contrary to the postmodern / constructivist understanding of human knowledge that I am advancing in the course.

I reminded them that I am arguing only that I believe we can better (more efficiently, and at a more regular, speedy rate with respect to time) accumulate useful explanations of stylized facts, as defined in this course, if we adopt the Conceptual Best Practices Checklist above.  If we do so, then my proposed distinction between Concepts and Typologies puts Ideal Type definitions and all other nominal classification schemes in the Typology group.  And I maintain that we recognize such efforts as important to the development of human knowledge, but not as useful as Concepts for the production of theories in our scientific knowledge community.[7]

We convey the full argument over the course of the semester.  Hence these posts.


Assumptions & Logical Implications

The second set of readings for the week sketch the assumptions and logical implications building blocks.  The reading for these topics come from Cohen & Nagel (1934): “The Subject Matter of Logic” and “What is a Proposition?” (pp. 3-16, 21-23, 27-30) and “The Function of Axioms,” “The Deductive Development of Hypotheses,” and “Hypotheses and Scientific Method” (pp. 129-33, 197-222).  I also assigned  Becky Morton’s sketch of verbal and formal models (Methods and Models, pp. 33-4, 36-43) and Miller & Page’s sketch of computational modeling (Complex Adaptive Systems, pp. 35-43, 57-62).  Morton’s book is primarily an account of her vision of EITM, but I assign her discussion of non-formal and formal models.  Because formal modeling tends to be reduced to game theory in political science, I also assign Miller & Page, which maps nicely to some of Blalock’s discussion of theorizing (I include an overview of dynamic modeling in the Additional Recommended Reading).  Both books also contain some discussion of the role/value of explicit assumptions and logical implications.

During seminar none of the students raised any of the issues broached in the Morton or Miller & Page reading, and I didn’t manage time well enough to work any in.  But I did ask them for a show of hands if they believed that a social science theory should be logically coherent.  Then I asked them why.


So I challenged them, saying something along the lines of:

Surely you must be able to come up with at least one reason logic is valuable?  Or have you perhaps just accepted its value on authority?  Do you believe that just because teachers and others have told you so for years?

Several students made a stumbling effort to articulate a reason why we should value a theory that proceeds logically from assumptions to implications.  None did terribly well.  There were lots of uncomfortable smiles, as if they knew in their bones that logic was important, but were tongue-tied to say why.

I had planned to lead a discussion about the value of logic from the perspective of intersubjective agreement, from Wittgenstein’s Beetle in the Box, to the preceding discussion of conceptualization, to producing descriptions of the process(es) that explain how and why stylized facts emerge in our collective experiences such that we can reproduce them such that large numbers of humans can recognize them (e.g., datasets, experiments, and so on).  But my prompting query failed to elicit that response.  Who’dathunkit!?!  I don’t know about you, but my prompting queries often strike students more as anchors than life jackets.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I was running out of time, and don’t honestly remember what I threw on the table in a disorganized effort to touch briefly on the several issues I’d planned to cover, but no longer had time to.  I did point out that if one adopts a post-modern ontological position and/or Models as Maps approach, then it becomes nonsense to ask whether assumptions are true, realistic, what have you.  I think I also reminded the students who’d taken the Math Camp about the value of Bayesian updating as decision making in the face of uncertainty, and observed its consistency with/similarity to Cohen & Nagel’s discussion of probabilistic inference.

But I mostly wanted us to bandy about the claim that logical coherence should be the primary criterion we use to trim the infinite number of natural language text strings that might be considered “theories” to a reasonable set that we, the scientific knowledge community, will consider carefully.  Cohen & Nagel (1934) are helpful here with this passage.

The structure of the proposition must… be expressed and communicated by an appropriate structure of the symbols, so that not every combination of symbols can convey a proposition.  “John rat blue Jones,” “Walking sat eat very,” are not symbols expressing propositions, but simply nonsense, unless indeed we are employing a code of some sort (pp. 27-8).

I embellish it with this thought experiment.  Imagine that a monkey bangs out 12 lines of text on a keyboard.  Do we want a criterion that permits us to rule out the “argument” thus produced without having to appeal to the cumbersome process of intersubjective agreement?

Yes.  One of the central claims about the use value of developing a scientific knowledge community is to produce efficient, progressively superior explanations of the stylized facts we observe.  We will discuss what “progressively superior” means in a few weeks.  The Gordian Knot problem never sleeps.  Put another way, we advocate embracing the formal rules of logically consistency and completeness from assumptions to implications as a specific norm that demarcates theory from non-theory on the grounds that it will enhance the efficient production of progressively superior explanations of the stylized facts.

It seems to me to be a common conjecture among political scientists that adopting a post-modern ontological position and constructivist perspective produces “an absence of standards” and makes it impossible to assess the use value of different explanations.  Indeed, some conjecture along these lines is surely modal in our discipline, and likely a supermajority position.  This course challenges that conjecture and embeds the full set of issues presently debated about how we should do science within a common framework built upon the foundation laid in the preceding weeks.



To prepare for class I generally scrawl on the white board wall of my office, take a photo of it with my iPad, and then refer to it during seminar.  Though my handwriting is deplorable, I share those notes here, in case they might prove useful filling in some blanks with respect to my discussion.


Notes for Building Blocks seminar.


[1] These two might well be linked.  I haven’t given it sufficient thought, though surely others have.  I may well have read about this somewhere, and simply forgotten.

[2] I am aware that this Best Practice Checklist rules out constants, for instance.  And truth be told, it is silly to rule out constants as stylized fact by fiat.  Which is to say, if pushed, I will cave on this point.  But few, if any, first year PhD students are prepared to take on that issue, so I am quite comfortable with the hand waving.

[3] And I will tell them then that I leave the deterministic theorizing to others because I am much better at probabilistic theory constructions and assessment of probabilistic hypotheses than I am at deterministic theorizing and hypothesis assessment.

[4] During Math Camp I illustrated the anti-intellectual position of objecting to the study of mathematics by social scientists as akin to objecting to the formal study of musical notation on the grounds that the formalization produces lots of negative outcomes.  As a huge fan of the African polyrhythms, percussion, the blues, rock and roll, ska, reggae, dancehall, DJ, dub, rap, hip hop, and electronica from house to trance to dubstep, I am well aware of the fact that none of these forms owe their existence to formal musical notation, and that the formalization has been used as a tool of culturicide.  Yup, I got all that.  But it just doesn’t follow that the formal language is the cause of oppression, nor that it would be a bad idea to study it and use it to produce music.  I generally don’t like illustration via analogy, but I do like that one.

[5] And here I pull a Cohen & Nagel by assuming that my audience is familiar with Breaking Bad.  #AintNoWayRoundAudienceAudienceAudience  #PopCultureHegemony  ;-)

[6] I have nothing positive to say about Aristotle’s work

[7] For the record, my examination fields for the PhD were Comparative (major), IR and Methods (minors), and my Dissertation co-chairs (Ted Gurr and Jim Scarritt) self identified as, and were members of, the Comparative field at CU.  I have read virtually every English piece on the so-called Comparative Method published between 1965 and circa 1998 (as well as a good chunk of the Comparative Sociology lit), when I more or less threw in the towel trying to keep up with the Alice in Wonderland world of that exasperating literature.  I also co-taught the Comparative Core seminar at UC, Riverside four or five times during the early to mid-90s.  So, yes, I am aware that these be fightin’ words!  I will also observe, as an aside, that Jonathan Nagler and I proposed, circa 1994, that the UCR Dept of Political Science (where we were faculty) abandon the American, Comparative, and IR fields, and reconstitute the department over two fields: Political Behavior and Political Institutions.  During graduate school I decided that our fields are anachronistic, path dependent nonsense that we would do very well to cast into the sea, and have as yet seen no reason to update that belief.

Posted in Theory & Inference Course | 1 Comment

Fiske & the Mutual Admiration Society

I have often wished we could simplify our social status signalling to the dog greeting technique.  Start with your prior belief about your station in the hierarchy, and wag your tail / stand still / or shrink your posture accordingly; exchange  a butt sniff;  growl snap a bit if its not clear who is where; and if necessary, the superordinate rests its jaw on the subordinate’s neck.  Everybody updates, and all proceed, interacting in accord with their station.  Is status unequally distributed?  You bet.  But guess what: mutually destructive fights are off the table.  Group function (a society with a chance to reproduce itself through time).


In her recent effort to re-establish the pre-science blogging / social media norms of academic communication (and perform her role of protecting her intellectual offspring), Professor Susan Fiske, a multiple award winning occupant of an endowed chair at Princeton, and the founder and leader of a very successful pyschology lab, invokes the “terrorist” bogeyman, and thus got the attention she was seeking. I discuss her use of that term below.  First, I want to discuss the Mutual Admiration Society she invokes.


The Function of a Mutual Admiration Society

Fiske decries the rise of “Methodological terroroists,” a group of self-appointed data police who operate outside of professional norms by publishing critiques of published work on non-refereed blogs (shared via social media), often impuging the motives of the authors, and far worse. Yep, there be trolls, unbridled sexism, and much nastiness online, including academia. And since none of us have read all of the social media posts or blog posts that she has in mind when leveling this charge, I am content to accept her judgment that a non-zero, and perhaps 20%, 40% or even 70% portion of the relevant corpus would be judged by many as having met her standard.  But I want to focus on her concern about the removal of peer review from publishing critiques that the scholarly community (and beyond) can access.

Here is Fiske, with most of her metaphoric hyperbole[1] stripped.  These bloggers

are ignoring ethical rules of conduct because they circumvent constructive peer review… Ultimately, science is a community, and we are in it together. We agree to abide by scientific standards, ethical norms, and mutual respect.

This bit is worthy of your consideration.  Let’s break it down.

First, “science is a community.”  Sure, most who self identify as scientists are likely modernists who believe (implicitly) that science is primarily a method, not a set of norms and institutions communally constructed.  But I suspect all but the most hardline of such folks agree with Fiske on this claim.

Second, “We agree to abide by scientific standards…”  Sure, its hand wavy, but her post APS editor approved communication is brief, and it’s a big tent, so I am willing to believe that a super majority of us are on board, conditional on the content of the hand wave.

Third, “ethical norms…”  Ahh, this is getting interesting.  Let’s focus on bloggers who post about research.  That is, engage in professional commentary that is publicly available but was not subject to any form of review (peer or otherwise).  I think a majority of us (who read blogs) can agree that sarcasm, snark and wit are celebrated in much of academic blogging.  And when Keiran Healy recently got “Fuck Nuance” accepted in a peer review discipline journal (with the three word abstract: “Seriously, fuck it.”), I cannot be the only one who thought “blog culture just crossed over.”  Yup, the 1960s / 1970s tear down of formality in (especially American) culture that was then led in the 1980s/1990s by Silicon Valley corporate culture, had hit academia and the tail end of the baby boomers (who engage the culture relatively little) don’t like it.  Enjoy the irony.

But just because we can raise late boomers who advocate Fiske’s position on their own petard does not weaken the position itself.  Fiske’s implicit notion that ethnical norms are static is, of course, foolish.  She would presumably acknowledge that.  But we would be equally ridiculous to pretend that the changing winds Andrew Gelman referred to are not sudden and rapid (as he observes), but more to the point that the challenge to the ethnical norms which the collapse of the cost for sharing one’s ideas in the commons had produced have been jarringly quick.  I suspect that many of us who blog dramatically underappreciate our (potential?) “influence.”

And if you don’t think of us as jointly producing news norms, including the subset of ethical conduct, well, may I recommend that you do some reading on norm construction.  This, then, is why Fiske’s invocation of ethical conduct stands out to me.  Should we do so in an unregulated market of conduct?  Or should we address the collective action problem, pay the coordination costs, and explicitly negotiate ethical codes of blogging conduct?

Let me first observe the obvious problem that with few of the tens of thousands of the stake holders in academic societies are engaged in the blogosphere.  Quelle surprise!   [insert banal observations on youth, technology, and rebellion]  So, yeah, the societies that have solved the collective action problem are not a promising vehicle for addressing this issue.

Second, well, the funny thing about solving collective problems is that it is really hard.

And it turns out that transaction costs are, well, costly.

So… Huh.

I guess the unregulated to market of conduct would be the default.

And here we are.

Finally, Fiske writes, “mutual respect.”  Ahhh.  Here, I suspect, we would find a major divide.  Those who contribute to, engage, and value the academic blogosphere (Open Access FTW) would, I strongly suspect, have a broad spread of views with respect to the value of, much less empirical content of, “mutual respect” than those who do not engage / value the blogosphere.  Most of the latter, I suspect, would endorse the “mutual respect” norm, comparatively few questioning its value.

And this returns us to the butt sniffing dogs.  Mutual respect is the primary lubricant that defines the Mutual Admiration Society.  I like to describe it this way.  Two academic peers encounter one another at a professional meeting, and perform the following ritual.

Academic A: “You’re so smart.”

Academic B: “You’re so smart!”

Butts sniffed Mutual recognition confirmed via mutual respect, they are free to part company, and even talk shite about one another’s work, privately. I think dogs’ solution to this collective action problem is much more transparent.  As a general rule, I detest ritual.  But I’d sign up for this.

Like all social institutions, the Mutual Admiration Society is both functional (permits society to operate efficiently), and produces perverse (aka, collectively suboptimal and, individually, unequally distributed) outcomes.

Welcome to social science.  You did not need me to point that out to you.  Well, because you are (likely) neurotypical and spend little time as an outsider to your social and professional circles, observing it and trying to figure out “Why the fuck do they do that?” perhaps you needed the assistance of an aspie who does spend most of his life standing outside his personal and professional circles wondering about precisely that question.

And Fiske’s post produces a moment to think about these four issues.  What do you make of the Mutual Admiration Society, by which I mean:

  • What do you think are its benefits?
  • What do you think are its perverse outcomes?
  • How might we improve it (by which I mean re-design norms and institutions such that we produce a self-enforcing new equilibrium).

And what do you think about professional ethical conduct in the blogosphere?  Quixotically wishing it away is not a conversation that interests me, but I want to encourage you to think about whether the CA problem should be addressed, and if so, how?


On “Terrorists” and “Terrorism”

Having spent a non-trivial portion of my professional life thinking, teaching and even writing about “terror,” I would be remiss not to chastise Fiske for her horse shite coinage of the term “methodological terrorist.”  If she hadn’t published several valuable, highly visible, articles on the process that dehumanization plays in making torture acceptable, I’d roll my eyes and declare her asinine choice unworthy of my disk space.  But for someone so prominently familiar with the impact of that very term upon our species’ willingness to engage barbaric behavior , who then decries the shaming behavior of those she has just de-humanized via pejorative labeling…

What’s the word I’m looking for?

Unconscionable.  Yup, that’s the word.

Such behavior is unconscionable.  Shame on you, Professor Fiske.  You need to hold yourself above such conduct.  It is entirely possible for you to make your point constructively without engaging in such shockingly poor judgment.

But, damn.  Props for those clicks!


NB: The original version of this post did not include the dog cartoon.

[1] By metaphoric hyperbole I am specifically referring to her use of the terms “destructo-critics,” “targets,” “methodological terrorist,” and “mob rule.”


Posted in Uncategorized | Leave a comment

Learning to Drink from a Fire Hose

This is the second in a series of guest posts by Nate Monroe.

In “Week 1: How to Succeed in Grad School,” Will does an excellent job covering the arc of our Week 1 readings (they are identical across our syllabi). His description of what he tried to impart to his students is pretty much in step with what I did, so I won’t rehash that here. Instead, I’m going to talk a little about some minor deviations, mostly by way of framing and extra emphasis, that I pursued in my run through Week 1.


Before I get to that, I’ll make a comment on tone. Over the past four years, I’ve developed a reputation among our grad students as being a bit… scary. This is mostly unintentional. I say “mostly” because I do intentionally have very high expectations—especially when it comes to students being prepared for seminar—and I have enforced those expectations pretty harshly. I do this especially in the intro class because (1) the students have a lot to learn in a hurry, and few can do it without working exceptionally hard, and (2) I know my colleagues expect them to be prepared in future seminars, so I see it as my job to set that expectation right off the bat.

I don’t mind my scary reputation, per se. But I’ve begun to worry that it inhibits student learning in seminar, as they’ve seemed increasingly nervous and tongue-tied in recent semesters. I’m making a concerted effort this semester to foster a less nerve-racking environment: fewer cold calls, fewer moments of icy silence, (slightly) fewer reprimands for students that don’t fully prepare. We’ll see how this goes, and if the tradeoff (i.e., I assume students will be a little less likely to read fully and carefully as a result of the “kinder, gentler” me) is worth it in the end.

I tried to give it to them pretty straight in Week 1: you’re no longer an undergrad; this will be really, really hard at times; you need to treat it like a job; this first semester—and maybe the whole first year—will feel a little like drinking from a fire hose; our expectations are very high; etc.

I then pointed out that the job market is just around the corner. Since first year students have a hard time conceptualizing four (or more) years as just around the corner, I asked them to count backwards from the day they hoped to be on the market. This is the relevant end point because students’ ultimate goal (at least in the first round of their careers) should be to secure a tenure track position.

I asked my students to assume that they want to be on the market in the fall of their fifth year (a slightly optimistic but certainly not unattainable goal), and to imagine what their file needs to look like to have a shot at interviews: excellent letters from three faculty members and several publications, including at least one on their own or with a grad student colleague. We then worked back through the math of how long it takes to write, revise and publish papers, and considered how many other things (e.g., RAships, coursework, technical training) needed to happen for them to be ready to start that process. We also talked about the need to start making a good impression on faculty now (more on that a little later).

Certainly this is a bit of an unnerving thought exercise (come to think of it, maybe this didn’t help my attempt to be less scary…), but my intention was to jar them out of any remaining sense that grad school is “just the next step in their education.” It seems absolutely essential to me that students come right out of the gate understanding that this is professional training; an apprenticeship, where there is no time to waste.

To this end, I also emphasized the immediacy and importance of cultivating their professional reputations. I pointed out that their reputations had already begun to take shape, at orientations and first class sessions and would quickly be shaped by their participation at department talks and meetings in faculty offices and circulations of paper drafts and presentations at conferences…on and on; and that this would continue, indefinitely, for the rest of their careers.

I stressed this point because, in my experience, first year graduate students fail to appreciate how small the world is that they are entering, and how long everyone’s memories are. I reassured them that there will inevitably be missteps and shared a couple of my own—I made a giant ass of myself in front of Ray Wolfinger as an undergrad, and Mat McCubbins summary comment on my final paper for my intro grad class was “and you were the one I had hope for, too…”—as evidence that a few mistakes aren’t likely to be career killing. But I encouraged them to be mindful of the impression that they are making with all of their professional activity.

Faculty aren’t the only audience, either. I reminded them that the grad students they meet today will one day be faculty and co-authors and journal editors and search committee members and lots of other useful things; making a positive impression now and building positive relationships early will pay dividends for a long time. To reinforce this point, I told the stories of how I came to know some of my regular collaborators, like Jeff Jenkins (I unexpectedly got swept up in a group lunch at MPSA), Chris Den Hartog (we bonded over a giant burrito), and Jason Roberts (we had lots of phone calls before 6 am about one of his working papers), when I was still a very green grad student.

Undoubtedly, coverage of these “professionalization” topics in Week 1 only scratched the surface. First year students will need to hear all of the lessons 10 or 100 more times, communicated in a variety of ways before they really take hold. And they’ll need to learn a lot of other lessons that go beyond the scope of a three-hour session (I appreciate that my department has developed an excellent monthly workshop for just this purpose). But I think our discussion got them off to a pretty good start.

And after class I was asked grudgingly by an older student why I didn’t scare the first years like I used to. So… progress.



Posted in NM's Posts, Theory & Inference Course | Leave a comment

Week 4: Why Theorize?

The fourth week of my Scientific Inquiry–Theory & Inference course addresses the question “Why should we theorize,” or “What is the purpose of theory.”  It is the first of a four week section on “Theory.”  The Gordian Knot problem rears its head as I put off discussion of causal relations/causation until the fourth week of the “Theory” section.  But weeks two and three of the seminar establish a post-modern, constructivist foundation for the production of human knowledge, a small portion of which concerns regular patterns we collectively discern in the world: stylized facts.[1]


The seminar is focused on joining the community of researchers who want to explain those stylized facts: contribute to the production of that small portion of human knowledge that has blown up over the past several centuries.   This week’s readings build on the reading from week 3 on the failure of induction as a process for constructing explanations for those stylized facts, and the problems with verificationist and falsificationist accounts for explaining the success of scientific knowledge communities.


Fudging a Definition of Theory

I am interested to learn how Nate addresses this,[2] but I began the seminar telling them that I am not going to define theory–that’s their job, not only over the course of the semester, but over the course of their PhD studies, and beyond.  Indeed, I tell them, for the seminar I will treat “theory,” “model,” “framework,” and similar terms as synonyms for “explanations of stylized facts.”

I subtitled the readings “Creating Models to Explain Stylized Facts.”  They first read four chapters from Clarke & Primo’s  A Model Discipline “What is a Model?” “Theoretical Models,” “Empirical Models,” and “Explanation” (pp. 52-167).  I assume the reader is familiar with the content of these chapters, and trust it is fairly self evident that the arguments they make mesh with the post-modern, constructivist foundation provided in this course.[3]

I don’t know what Nate plans, but as noted above, I leave it to the students to decide whether they want to embrace (for the moment) Clarke & Primo’s distinction between models and theories.  During seminar I pressed the value of the models (theories, frameworks, etc.) “as maps” metaphor.  For what purpose has the researcher developed their theory?  To assess the value of the theory one should not consult a checklist of steps or any other set of criteria.  One should ask whether she finds the theory useful for its intended purpose.  Full. Stop.

This reading sets us up to debunk a lot of the garbage one routinely hears social scientists make about the standards we use to judge research reports (especially for the “top” journals and presses).  “Only work that checks the following N criteria should be in the top outlets,” is a general expression of this liturgy.[4]  to select an arbitrary moment in time for illustration, during the 1950s the liturgy for the top outlets had a particular composition.   Over the decades it has changed, marginally during most “one to five year” aggregations of time, and during some of those chunks of time rather markedly.  Though liturgy is obviously functional—science has progressed—I am arguing that it is suboptimal.  We will operate more efficiently as a community (make more regular progress developing theories we find useful) if we abandon liturgy that draws on modern, verificationist, and falsificationist understandings of scientific method as practiced by individual research teams in favor of the broader understanding of theory as maps articulated in Clarke & Primo.

Sutton & Staw (1995) [PDF here] offer a negative, connotative definition of theory drawing upon their experience as authors, peer review referees, and journal editors.  Healy (2016) exposes our inclination as audience members, discussants, and referees to demand nuance from others’ work.  Unlike the Clarke & Primo presentation, both of these works shift the reader’s point of view from knowledge producer to that of the gatekeeper.

In week one of the course I described the PhD process as a transformation from knowledge consumer to knowledge producer.  And this course makes the case for rethinking science as a practice of individuals (“method”) to the (re)production of norms and institutions that solve the collective action problems produced by the clash between our individual incentives as community members and our collective goals as a knowledge community.  The Healy article in particular offers the students an opportunity to “try on” the role of gate keeper; to consider the clash between our individual incentive as critic to “demand nuance” (independent of any finite set of stylized facts) and the author’s goal of producing an explanation constrained by the specific set of stylized facts she has designated; to discuss how they might begin to play that role over the coming years. That is, I encouraged them to appreciate that the “what’s the purpose” standard Clarke & Primo advance exposes the asinine hubris that Healy so nicely describes.

I then told them that they would be the nuance demanding ass-hat.  I argued that the nuance problem exists because we are all nuance demanding ass-hats.  The question is not whether, but instead your relative frequency: what percentage of your comments, quips, questions and retorts over the next [arbitrary unit of time] will be “nuance demands”?  If you think it is close to zero, you are deceiving yourself (which, we know from week 2 reading, we do many times per waking hour).  I encouraged them to pay attention during upcoming talks in SPGS and count the number of nuance demands.  I encouraged them to start noticing them in their seminars.  I suggested that they might find it useful to produce a typology of “nuance demands,” the better to begin purging the habit from their own repertoire.

Unsurprisingly, my students were drawn toward reading Sutton & Staw from the lens of the author: what can I learn from this article that will help me get published?  That is the obvious, self-interested view any student will first explore.  So I pushed them beyond that view toward one where they could try on the issues that Healy’s essay more naturally leads them to consider.


I sit out while they have a student-directed discussion.[5]


In week one I asked them how many had seen “The Karate Kid.”  Each one had seen it.  I asked them what was the key line from the movie.  Most of them smiled as several of them answered “Wax on.  Wax off,” a few even making a circular motion in the air with their palm. “I know you want to learn how to do research; how to ask good questions; theorize; design a study; write a paper, and get it published,” I told them.  I continued with something like the following.

If I could teach you that this semester, I would.  But I can’t.  This seminar offers no answers, and especially does not offer a recipe.  It provides you an opportunity to practice.  It has a structured set of readings that are not important on their own, but instead prompts to get you to practice.  There is no static method to learn; no recipes to master.  Switching analogies, the readings and seminar discussion are like the equipment in a gym: you have the opportunity to workout.  Whether you do is up to you.


[1] Those interested in thinking about stylized facts might check out Dan Hirschman’s post yesterday at Scatterplot.  He discusses Charles Crabtree & Chris Fariss’s comment on his recent paper on the topic.

[2] Nate Monroe and I co-developed the syllabus.  Be sure to check out his posts about teaching the course.

[3] I am not suggesting that Clarke or Primo would endorse this syllabus.  I am merely asserting that their rejection of the dominant view of (social) science taught in our discipline is consistent with our course (or vice versa).  If that doesn’t make much sense to you, no worries.  Stay tuned.  There is more to come as the semester unfolds.  :-)

[4] I am indebted to Mike Ward for this use of liturgy, though I believe he means something a bit different from my usage.

[5] If one of your reactions to this photo is “What’s up with the 2016 dudefest at ASU?” we also had that reaction to the outcome of this year’s recruitment.  Single draws and small N’s aside, we are counting on you to help us reduce the odds of repetition by encouraging your students to apply to our program, which, for the record, includes a specialization in women and politics.

Posted in Theory & Inference Course | 2 Comments